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October 26, 2026

Job Market Outlook: Canada Sheds Jobs, US Hiring Stalls as Rate Decisions Loom

Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September while US payrolls grew by just 29,000. With the Bank of Canada and the Fed both deciding on rates Wednesday, here is what the latest data means for your job search, where demand is still holding up, and a resume fix you can make today.

The short version

Both sides of the border head into a busy week of central bank decisions with job markets that are cooling, not collapsing. Canada has now lost jobs two months in a row. The US is still adding jobs, but barely, and earlier months were revised lower. For job seekers, that combination usually means fewer openings per applicant, slower hiring processes, and more weight on how precisely you match each posting.

Below: what the latest numbers say, where demand is holding up, what to watch this week, and today's resume tip.

Canada: a second monthly decline, led by the public sector

Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey for September, released October 9, showed employment falling by 68,000 (-0.3%), following a 42,000 drop in August. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%, still below the 6.9% peak reached in April.

A few details matter more than the headline:

  • The losses were concentrated in public-facing services. Educational services shed 35,000 jobs, and health care and social assistance lost 23,000, its first monthly decline since December 2022. Public sector employment fell by 70,000, a fourth straight monthly decline, while private sector employment was little changed.
  • Young workers took a big share of the hit. Employment among 15- to 24-year-olds fell 48,000 in September and 67,000 over two months. The youth unemployment rate held at 13.0%.
  • Fewer people are looking. The participation rate slipped to 64.8%, its lowest since 1997 outside of 2020. StatCan attributes the year-over-year decline largely to population aging. That is one reason the unemployment rate rose only modestly despite sizable job losses.
  • Regional gaps are widening. Quebec lost 49,000 jobs and British Columbia 20,000, while Alberta added 23,000 and saw its unemployment rate fall to 6.4%. Ontario's rate edged up to 7.0%.

Average hourly wages were up 2.3% from a year earlier, at $37.64.

What it means: If you are targeting schools, hospitals or government roles in Canada, expect fewer postings and longer timelines for now. Private sector hiring has been steadier, and Alberta stands out on the provincial map.

United States: slow job growth, revised lower

The Bureau of Labor Statistics September Employment Situation report, released October 2, showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2%. Economists had expected about 84,000 new jobs, according to Quartz's summary of consensus forecasts. Revisions also cut a combined 60,000 jobs from July and August, and July is now a small loss.

Health care kept adding jobs, though more slowly than its recent pace. Construction (+11,000) and manufacturing (+9,000) grew modestly, while financial activities, information, professional and business services, and government lost jobs or were little changed. About 1.9 million people had been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer, roughly 27% of all unemployed workers.

Pay is a mixed picture. Average hourly earnings were up 3.0% over the year, but Indeed Hiring Lab's October snapshot notes that wages advertised in job postings grew only 2.4% while consumer prices rose 3.7%, so many workers are losing ground after inflation.

The most recent BLS job openings data (JOLTS), for August, showed 7.1 million openings, 5.2 million hires and a quits rate of 1.9%. Low quits mean employees are staying put, which leaves fewer vacancies for new applicants. Indeed puts the ratio at roughly one opening per unemployed person, down from about 1.2 in 2019.

Where demand is holding up

The slowdown is not uniform. Indeed's posting data points to a few clear bright spots in the US:

  • Engineering. Mechanical, civil and electrical engineering rank among the five strongest sectors on Indeed's postings index, behind physicians and therapy roles. Advertised pay for electrical engineers rose 5.6% year over year.
  • Data centres and AI. Postings tied to data centres rose another 20% in three months, and AI-related roles now make up 7.3% of all postings, more than double their 2022 peak.
  • Health care and manufacturing remain well above their pre-pandemic posting levels.

The weak spot is software development, where postings sit far below 2020 levels. Tech-heavy metros such as Seattle and San Francisco have the softest local markets. Indeed also found that 68% of occupational sectors had more postings than a year earlier, up from 49% in early September, though the authors caution it is too early to call that a turnaround.

These are posting trends, not confirmed hires. Treat them as a signal of where employers are trying to recruit.

What to watch this week

  • Wednesday, October 28: The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET, alongside its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, which includes updated forecasts for growth and jobs.
  • Wednesday, October 28: The US Federal Reserve also concludes its October meeting. Markets broadly expect no change, Indeed reports, after the Fed raised rates in September. Higher borrowing costs tend to slow business expansion and hiring at the margin, so the tone of the statement matters for the months ahead.
  • Friday, October 30: The BLS Employment Cost Index for the third quarter, a broader measure of wage and benefit growth.
  • Friday, November 6: October jobs reports from both Statistics Canada and the BLS.

What job seekers can do now

  1. Follow the openings, not the headlines. Engineering, health care, skilled trades, and data centre construction and operations are where postings are growing. If your skills overlap, tailor applications toward those employers.
  2. Plan for a longer search. With roughly one opening per unemployed worker in the US and Canadian job losses concentrated in a few sectors, budget extra time and keep several applications moving at once.
  3. Widen your geography if you can. Alberta in Canada and parts of New England and the Upper Midwest in the US have tighter labour markets than the national averages.
  4. Make every application count. When applicant pools are larger, a resume that clearly matches the posting matters more. That is today's tip.

Tip #1: Make your top three bullets answer the posting's top three requirements

The problem: Most resumes list duties in the order the job was done, so the experience a hiring manager is looking for sits halfway down the page.

What to do instead: Before you apply, pick the three requirements the posting stresses most. Then make sure the first bullets under your most recent role show truthful evidence of each one, ideally with a result.

Example: A posting for an operations coordinator emphasizes scheduling, vendor management and Excel reporting.

  • Before: "Responsible for daily operations and supporting the team."
  • After: "Coordinated weekly schedules for 40 field staff and built an Excel report that cut overtime hours 12% in six months."

New graduates can use coursework, volunteer roles or part-time jobs as evidence.

Today's action: Open one posting you plan to apply to, highlight its top three requirements, and rewrite your first three bullets to match.

The takeaway

The job market is soft but uneven. Hiring has slowed in both countries, especially in Canadian public services and US white-collar sectors, while engineering, health care and infrastructure roles continue to post openings. This week's rate decisions will shape the outlook, but the practical response is the same: aim at growing sectors and make each application clearly fit the role.

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