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October 30, 2026

Weekly Jobs Roundup: Pay Growth Cools, Canada's Economy Stalls and Microsoft Offers Buyouts

US pay growth slowed in the third quarter and is trailing inflation, Canada's economy flatlined in August, and Microsoft opened a buyout offer to about 60,000 staff. Here is the week's most important job market news for Canada and the US, what it means for your search, and how to follow up with a recruiter.

The week in one paragraph

This was the busiest week of the fall for job market news. Both central banks moved toward tighter policy, the US economy posted strong growth, and two Friday-morning data releases added detail that matters directly to job seekers: what employers are paying, and whether Canada's economy is growing at all. Layoff announcements were modest in size but steady, led by a large voluntary buyout at Microsoft. Below is what happened, what it means, and a recruiter follow-up tip to close out the week.

Monday to Thursday: rates up, growth strong, hiring thin

We covered the midweek news in detail in Thursday's rate analysis, so here is the short version:

  • Bank of Canada: raised its policy rate a quarter point to 2.5% on Wednesday, its first hike in more than three years, citing persistent inflation despite unemployment near 6.5%.
  • Federal Reserve: held at 3.75% to 4%, with two officials voting for a hike.
  • US growth: the economy expanded at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter.
  • US layoffs: initial jobless claims were a low 194,000 for the week ending October 24.

Together, these describe a "low-hire, low-fire" market. People with jobs are mostly keeping them, while people looking for work face fewer openings and slower processes.

Friday: US pay growth slows and trails inflation

The US Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of what employers spend on wages and benefits, rose 0.8% in the third quarter, in line with forecasts and down from 0.9% in the second quarter, investingLive reported from the Bureau of Labor Statistics release. Wages and salaries alone rose 0.7%, down from 0.9%. Benefits rose 0.9%.

Over the past year, total compensation for civilian workers was up 3.4%, wages 3.1% and benefits 3.9%. The key number for job seekers: after adjusting for inflation, private-sector wages and salaries were down 0.6% from a year earlier. With consumer prices up 3.7% in September, raises are not keeping up with living costs for the typical worker.

What it means: Slower wage growth is consistent with employers feeling less pressure to compete for staff. That can make it harder to negotiate a big jump in pay when switching jobs, especially in sectors with plenty of applicants. It is not uniform, though. Fields with clear shortages, such as electrical work, engineering and some health care roles, have shown stronger advertised pay, as we noted in Wednesday's in-demand jobs article. If you are in one of those fields, benchmark offers against current postings, not last year's salary.

Friday: Canada's economy flatlines

Statistics Canada reported that real GDP was unchanged in August, below the 0.2% gain economists expected, according to investingLive. The agency's early estimate points to a 0.1% decline in September, and to growth of about 0.3% for the third quarter as a whole (a quarterly rate, not annualized). These are preliminary figures and are often revised.

Only 9 of 20 industry sectors grew in August. Retail rose 1.2%, led by car dealers, and manufacturing gained 0.3%. Wholesale trade fell 1.4%, oil and gas extraction dropped 1.2% for a third straight month, and the public sector shrank 0.2%, partly as census work wound down.

What it means: A flat economy two days after a rate hike reinforces the cautious hiring picture in Canada. The public sector decline matches what the Labour Force Survey has shown for months: government, education and health employment have been the weakest part of the job market. Applicants targeting those employers should expect longer timelines. Private manufacturing and retail held up better in August, though one month is not a trend.

Who cut, who offered buyouts

Layoff news this week was a mix of buyouts, wind-downs and smaller notices:

  • Microsoft announced a time-limited Voluntary Exit Offer on October 26 for up to about 60,000 employees in participating teams in Canada, the US, the UK and India, at level 70 and below. It is voluntary, not a layoff, and not every team is offering it. GoLayoffs reports that employees have until early December to decide.
  • American Express said it will cut about 3,500 jobs, roughly 5% of its workforce, alongside third-quarter results, JobAdvisor reported citing the Associated Press.
  • Instacart is winding down its Caper Cart smart-cart business, according to an October 25 SEC filing. It expects $12 million to $17 million in employee termination costs but did not disclose a headcount.
  • Dropbox (57 workers) and Frontapp (53 workers) filed California layoff notices this week, according to GoLayoffs.

None of these is large relative to the overall job market, and weekly jobless claims remain low. But buyouts at large tech employers can mean more experienced candidates entering the market over the winter, adding competition for mid-level and senior roles.

On the hiring side, the large seasonal programs we covered on Tuesday, at Amazon, UPS and others, are still the biggest source of new openings. In manufacturing, the Hyundai-POSCO steel plant in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, has begun hiring and aims for about 1,300 hires by 2029, Hoodline reported. That is a multi-year target, so check the company's official careers listings for what is open now.

What to watch next week

  • Tuesday, November 3: US job openings (JOLTS) for September.
  • Wednesday, November 4: Canadian merchandise trade for September, an early read on how tariffs are affecting exporters.
  • Friday, November 6: October jobs reports from both Statistics Canada and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. These will be the first full labour readings since this week's rate decisions.

Tip #5: Follow up with something new, not just "checking in"

The problem: Most follow-up emails to recruiters say only "Just checking in on my application." They are easy to ignore because they give the recruiter nothing to act on, and in a slow-hiring market recruiters are juggling more candidates per role.

What to do instead: Wait until the timeline the recruiter gave you has passed (or about a week after an interview if none was given). Then send a short note that restates your interest in one line and adds one useful piece of information: a relevant result, a certification you just finished, or a quick answer to something raised in the interview.

Example: You interviewed for a customer success role 10 days ago.

  • Before: "Hi Priya, just following up to see if there are any updates. Thanks!"
  • After: "Hi Priya, I'm still very interested in the customer success role. After our conversation about onboarding delays, I put together a one-page outline of the 30-day onboarding checklist I used at my last job. Happy to share it if useful. Is the team still aiming to decide by mid-November?"

No recent results to share? A new graduate can mention a relevant course project or a tool they learned since applying.

Today's action: List every application or interview where the stated timeline has passed, and draft one value-adding follow-up for the most promising one.

The takeaway

The week's data adds up to a consistent picture: economies that are growing, or at least not shrinking, but employers that are cautious about both headcount and pay. That makes targeting, timing and persistence more important than volume. Aim at sectors still short of workers, negotiate with current market data, and follow up in a way that gives recruiters a reason to move you forward.

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